The central bank’s data released today show that the public remains uneasy about inflation. According to the March 2026 results, households’ 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectation rose by 1.08 percentage points in one month to 49.89%. This figure places the expectation perilously close to the 50% threshold.
What is particularly striking is not only that expectations increased, but also that fewer households expect inflation to fall. In the same data series, the share of households anticipating lower inflation over the next 12 months declined by 5.19 percentage points from the previous month, down to 15.14%. In other words, confidence that price increases will slow has weakened further.
The rise in expectations is not limited to consumers. Market participants’ 12-month-ahead inflation expectation climbed to 22.17%, while the real sector’s expectation reached 32.90%. In the March 2026 snapshot, inflation expectations moved upward across all major groups.
Why does this matter? Because expectations are more than a survey result; they influence wage negotiations, spending behavior, saving decisions, and pricing psychology. If people believe prices will remain high over the next 12 months, the prevailing sentiment becomes “it’s expensive today and may be even more expensive tomorrow,” which affects everyday financial choices. This interpretation follows from the published data.
This information is especially important for those living on fixed incomes—pensioners, minimum-wage earners, and households with regular grocery spending. The central bank’s expectation figures indicate that households still feel price pressures are persistent. Reports also highlight that food and fuel-energy are the categories households both experienced the largest price increases in and expect to rise most in the coming period.
The main picture emerging from the March 2026 data is clear: inflation expectations are rising again while hopes for a decline are weakening. This dynamic could refocus the economic debate in the coming days on wage purchasing power, grocery bills, and household budgets.