The Central Bank Has Announced Its Year-End Dollar Forecast! According to the Central Bank’s July Expectations Survey, the year-end inflation expectation for the current year came in at 10.22%. In the previous survey period, the inflation expectation was 9.54%. Within these expectations, the year-end exchange rate forecast for the dollar has risen to 7.0188. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey published its July 2020 Expectations Survey, conducted with 60 participants representing the real sector, the financial sector and professional respondents.
The July period consumer price index (CPI) expectation, which was 0.47% in June 2020, was realized at 0.61% in this survey period. The year-end CPI expectation increased from 9.54% to 10.22%. The 12-month CPI expectation rose from 9.03% to 9.33%. The 24-month CPI expectation remained unchanged at 8.38%. Participants’ year-end dollar–TL forecast increased from 6.9922 to 7.0188, while the 12-month dollar expectation rose from 7.2208 to 7.2580. The year-end current account deficit expectation, which was 11.6 billion dollars in the previous survey period, was recorded as 14.6 billion dollars in this period. The current account expectation for the next year also rose from 17.3 billion dollars to 19.6 billion dollars.
One-Week Repo Auction Rate Current Month Expectation Is 8.25%!
The one-week repo auction rate current month expectation is 8.25%. The GDP growth expectation for 2020 remained unchanged from the previous survey period and held steady at -1.3%. The GDP growth expectation for 2021 increased slightly from 4.6% to 4.7%.
The expected weighted average funding cost of the Central Bank for the current month decreased slightly from 7.76% to 7.74%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey recorded expectations for the one-week repo auction rate as 8.25% for the current month and 7.90% for 12 months ahead.