As the end of the year approaches, the 2021 pension raise rates are becoming clear. The Central Bank recently published the results of its expectation survey. If the survey outcomes are applied, the lowest and highest pension amounts for 2021 have been estimated.
Central Bank Expectation Survey Published
Salaries for civil servants and pensions are adjusted twice a year, in January and July, with increases tied to inflation. For this reason, the Central Bank conducts an expectation survey ahead of these months. The survey divides the year into six-month periods and uses inflation data between July and January to determine adjustments for civil servant and pension payments. According to the Central Bank’s latest expectation survey, pension increases in January are expected to range between 4% and 5.4%. If this range is reflected in payments, retirees could see increases of up to 358 TL.
Pension Increase Rates
Based on the expectation survey data, the 2021 pension amounts after the projected increases would be approximately as follows:
- Pension of 5,800 TL becomes 6,113 TL
- Pension of 5,600 TL becomes 5,902 TL
- Pension of 5,400 TL becomes 5,691 TL
- Pension of 5,200 TL becomes 5,480 TL
- Pension of 5,000 TL becomes 5,270 TL
- Pension of 4,800 TL becomes 5,059 TL
- Pension of 4,600 TL becomes 4,848 TL
- Pension of 4,400 TL becomes 4,637 TL
- Pension of 4,200 TL becomes 4,637 TL
- Pension of 4,000 TL becomes 4,216 TL
- Pension of 3,800 TL becomes 4,005 TL
- Pension of 3,600 TL becomes 3,794 TL
- Pension of 3,200 TL becomes 3,372 TL
- Pension of 2,600 TL becomes 2,740 TL
- Pension of 2,400 TL becomes 2,529 TL
- Pension of 2,200 TL becomes 2,318 TL
- Pension of 2,000 TL becomes 2,108 TL
- Pension of 1,800 TL becomes 1,897 TL
- Pension of 1,600 TL becomes 1,686 TL
- Pension of 1,500 TL will be 1,581 TL in 2021 after the increase
Do the Expectation Survey Results Reflect Reality?
It should be noted that the figures from the expectation survey are typically implemented with only minor adjustments. Therefore, the survey provides a realistic indication of how large the increases will be. The survey focuses on inflation estimates and has generally produced accurate results. In the most recent survey, the expected rate is higher than in the previous survey: what was previously 3.79% is now estimated between 4.79% and 5.4%.
In addition to pension increases, family allowances for civil servants are also expected to rise in 2021 based on these figures. Spousal allowance would increase from 351.09 TL to 361.62 TL. Child allowances for ages 0–6 would rise from 77 TL to 79.50 TL, and for children over 6 from 38 TL to 39.77 TL. Civil servants with two children under age 6 and with a non-working spouse would receive an additional payment of 520.70 TL. As a result, the total family allowance would increase to 524.72 TL and take effect in the first half of 2021.