The deficit in the Social Security Institution’s (SGK) budget continues to grow. While the expected shortfall for 2023 is 113.2 billion TRY, projections show the gap could widen to 385.6 billion TRY in 2024. Transfers from the public budget to the institution are estimated to reach 1.5 trillion TRY next year, while the unemployment insurance fund’s accumulated assets are expected to approach 320 billion TRY.
2024 SGK Revenue and Expenditure Balance
The Presidential Annual Program for 2024 highlights the SGK’s revenue and expenditure balance. In 2022, SGK recorded revenues of 971.7 billion TRY and expenditures rising to 1.1 trillion TRY, leaving a budget deficit of 41.7 billion TRY.
Including those eligible under special retirement arrangements (EYT), SGK’s revenues for 2023 are estimated at 2.1 trillion TRY, with expenditures around 2.2 trillion TRY. That would result in a projected deficit of 113.2 billion TRY for 2023.
According to reporting by Mustafa Çakır in Cumhuriyet, transfers to SGK from the state budget have risen consistently year after year. Transfers were 254.1 billion TRY in 2021 and increased to 389.9 billion TRY in 2022. For 2023, the institution is expected to receive budget transfers totaling 909.1 billion TRY, and that amount is projected to reach a full 1.5 trillion TRY in 2024.
Will a New Pension System Arrive?
Debate over a new pension system and associated funds continues, and assets in the Unemployment Insurance Fund are also projected to grow substantially. Total assets in the fund were 124.3 billion TRY in 2022 and are expected to reach 174.7 billion TRY in 2023. Forecasts indicate the fund could increase to 319.6 billion TRY in 2024.
Although the fund primarily pays unemployment benefits, payments for the Wage Guarantee Fund and short-time working allowance are small relative to its total size. During the 2021 pandemic, demand for short-time working allowance surged, with payments of 17.9 billion TRY. Those payments fell to 9.5 billion TRY in 2022, but support directed to earthquake-affected regions lifted the expected total to about 17.4 billion TRY in 2023.
For 2024, payments from the fund for short-time working, unemployment benefits, and the Wage Guarantee Fund are estimated at 31.1 billion TRY, reflecting anticipated further increases in support.