Turkey Earthquake Risk Map Revealed: Where the Eastern Anatolia Fault Runs

A powerful pair of earthquakes—magnitude 7.7 centered in Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş) and magnitude 7.6 near Elbistan—caused widespread destructive damage across ten provinces. With a high number of fatalities, authorities and the public have emphasized the need to remain cautious about possible aftershocks and future quakes.

Following these events, AFAD published an updated earthquake risk map for Turkey that highlights active fault lines, their paths, and the regions most likely to be affected. The map clarifies which areas should prioritize preparedness and mitigation measures.

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WHERE DOES THE EASTERN ANATOLIAN FAULT RUN?

Given the increasing frequency and impact of earthquakes in recent years, public awareness and preparedness are crucial. The national seismic risk map identifies major faults across Turkey, including the route of the Eastern Anatolian Fault.

AFAD’s risk map shows that the Eastern Anatolian Fault extends through Hatay, Osmaniye, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaraş, Adıyaman, Elazığ, Bingöl and Muş. From the Erzincan area it connects with the North Anatolian Fault system.

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HIGHEST-RISK REGIONS (FIRST DEGREE)

The updated Turkey Seismic Hazard Map was released and implemented as part of national efforts to improve earthquake preparedness. Within the framework of the National Earthquake Research Program (UDAP), the map identifies provinces classified as first-degree (highest) risk.

Provinces listed as first-degree risk include:

  • Izmir
  • Balıkesir
  • Manisa
  • Muğla
  • Aydın
  • Denizli
  • Isparta
  • Uşak
  • Bursa
  • Bilecik
  • Yalova
  • Sakarya
  • Düzce
  • Kocaeli
  • Kırşehir
  • Bolu
  • Karabük
  • Hatay
  • Bartın
  • Çankırı
  • Tokat
  • Amasya
  • Çanakkale
  • Erzincan
  • Tunceli
  • Bingöl
  • Muş
  • Hakkari
  • Osmaniye
  • Kırıkkale
  • Siirt
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SECOND-DEGREE RISK REGIONS

Provinces identified as second-degree risk include:

  • Tekirdağ
  • Istanbul
  • Bitlis
  • Kahramanmaraş
  • Van
  • Adıyaman
  • Şırnak
  • Zonguldak
  • Tekirdağ (listed twice on the original)
  • Afyon
  • Samsun
  • Antalya
  • Erzurum
  • Kars
  • Ardahan
  • Batman
  • Iğdır
  • Elazığ
  • Diyarbakır
  • Adana
  • Eskişehir
  • Malatya
  • Kütahya
  • Çankırı
  • Uşak
  • Ağrı
  • Çorum
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LOWEST-RISK REGIONS

According to the national seismic map, provinces categorized in the lower-risk groups (fourth and fifth) include:

  • Sinop
  • Giresun
  • Trabzon
  • Rize
  • Artvin
  • Kırklareli
  • Ankara
  • Edirne
  • Adana
  • Nevşehir
  • Niğde
  • Aksaray
  • Konya
  • Karaman
Updated Fault Line Map